Visualizing US COVID-19 Vaccination Trends

Hongguin J. Kim
3 min readMar 10, 2021

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By March 8th, the US recorded 57,516 new daily cases of COVID-19. Compared to January 9th, which recorded 251,303 daily cases, the number dropped by 77%.

There could be many reasons to explain this dramatic drop in the number of daily cases, but many experts point out that vaccination distribution has been one of the biggest drivers.

As the below chart shows, daily Covid-19 vaccine doses administered in the US are increasing rapidly. Daily vaccine doses administered on March 8th are more than 2.1M.

When looking at the state level, California records the highest in terms of total Covid-19 vaccine doses administered. We could easily assume this is the case because California has the biggest population in the US.

To accurately see which state is performing well in terms of vaccine distribution, we have to see the Total Covid-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people.

As seen in the chart above, Alaska is leading among other states.

Now let’s see the percentage of the population that are fully vaccinated against Covid-19.

As you can see in the above chart, Alaska has the highest share of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19. By March 9th, 16.04% of the population in Alaska are fully vaccinated.

We can also see the overall trends in the map below:

Now you will be curious what percentage of the US population will be fully vaccinated in the future. Using the Exponential Smoothing method, we can estimate the percentage in the next two month as below:

According to the chart, 24.01% of the population is expected to be fully vaccinated by April 26th.

In summary, the number of vaccine doses administered is increasing rapidly, which is good news for everyone. When looking at the state level, the speed of vaccine distribution differs. However share of people fully vaccinated is expected to increase rapidly, and this trend will hopefully lead to our daily lives getting back to normal shortly.

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Hongguin J. Kim
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Duke University, Fuqua School of Business